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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Making Use of the Box-Jenkins ARIMA Model to Forecast Future Values of Annual Neonatal Mortality Rate for Brazil

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 7 No 8 (2023): Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 | Pages: 225-229

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 25-09-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.708030

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Abstract
The Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology was proposed by Box and Jenkins in 1970. This technique has gained tremendous popularity in various fields such as economics, engineering and human medicine as result of its accuracy and reliable forecasts. This study uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Brazil from 1963 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (0,2,5) model. The ARIMA model predictions indicate that NMR will decline throughout the out-of-sample period. Therefore, policy-makers are encouraged to draft and implement neonatal policies that will effectively address factors which significantly contribute to mortality in neonates. 
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Citation of this Article

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Making Use of the Box-Jenkins ARIMA Model to Forecast Future Values of Annual Neonatal Mortality Rate for Brazil” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, pp 225-229, August 2023. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.708030

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