Prevention of Adverse Neonatal Health Outcomes in Benin Using Empirical Evidence Generated By the Box-Jenkins ARIMA Model

Low-middle income countries continue to report high absolute numbers of under five deaths. The decline in under-five mortality over the previous decades is commendable, however that of neonatal mortality is not impressive. Therefore, it is relevant at this point in time to utilize a forecasting technique to inform decisions and allocation of adequate resources to neonatal healthcare interventions. This article employs annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Benin from 1960 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (0,1,4) model. The ARIMA model predictions suggest that NMR will remain very high in Benin. Hence, authorities are encouraged to design and implement appropriate neonatal policies that will address very high deaths among neonates. Special attention should be given to improvement of quality, accessibility and affordability of neonatal healthcare services at all levels of healthcare.