Prevention of Adverse Neonatal Health Outcomes in Benin Using Empirical Evidence Generated By the Box-Jenkins ARIMA Model
Abstract
Low-middle income countries continue to report
high absolute numbers of under five deaths. The decline in under-five mortality
over the previous decades is commendable, however that of neonatal mortality is
not impressive. Therefore, it is relevant at this point in time to utilize a
forecasting technique to inform decisions and allocation of adequate resources
to neonatal healthcare interventions. This article employs annual time series
data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Benin from 1960 to 2019 to predict
future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown
that the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model
based on AIC is the ARIMA (0,1,4) model. The ARIMA model predictions suggest
that NMR will remain very high in Benin. Hence, authorities are encouraged to
design and implement appropriate neonatal policies that will address very high
deaths among neonates. Special attention should be given to improvement of
quality, accessibility and affordability of neonatal healthcare services at all
levels of healthcare.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 212-216
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