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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Relying on ARIMA Model Forecasts to Address Adverse Neonatal Health Outcomes in Ecuador

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 7 No 8 (2023): Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 | Pages: 261-265

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 25-09-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.708036

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Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Ecuador from 1960 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (0,2,0) model. The ARIMA model predictions revealed that neonatal mortality will hover around 7 deaths per 1000 live births throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Ecuador to formulate local neonatal policies to address the problem of deaths of newborns with more attention being given to addressing various challenges in the rural areas.

Keywords

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Citation of this Article

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Relying on ARIMA Model Forecasts to Address Adverse Neonatal Health Outcomes in Ecuador” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, pp 261-265, August 2023. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.708036

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
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