International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Relying on ARIMA Model Forecasts to Address Adverse Neonatal Health Outcomes in Ecuador

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Ecuador from 1960 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (0,2,0) model. The ARIMA model predictions revealed that neonatal mortality will hover around 7 deaths per 1000 live births throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Ecuador to formulate local neonatal policies to address the problem of deaths of newborns with more attention being given to addressing various challenges in the rural areas.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 261-265

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.708036

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