Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
The UK government has made tremendous progress in controlling
neonatal mortality, however more needs to be done to end all avoidable deaths
by the end of 2030. Application of time series forecasting techniques will
highlight likely future trends of neonatal mortality to inform public health
decisions and resource allocation to neonatal healthcare interventions. This
study uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for the
United Kingdom from 1960 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the
period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under
consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA
(3,1,2) model. The ARIMA model predictions indicate that neonatal mortality
will remain under control throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we
encourage the UK government to address existing socio-economic inequalities
amongst other measures in order to keep neonatal and infant deaths under
control.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 505-511