Tackling High Neonatal Mortality Rates in Liberia Using Empirical Evidence Generated by the Box-Jenkins ARIMA Model

Liberia has several challenges such as inadequate infrastructure, lack of skilled medical staff and shortage of medical equipment and supplies. Furthermore, there is low contraceptive prevalence which has resulted in high numbers of teenage pregnancies with 60 percent of neonatal deaths occurring among adolescent women. Tracking future trends of neonatal mortality rate will guide decisions and allocation of resources to maternal and child health program activities across the country. Therefore, this study uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Liberia from 1963 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (3,1,3) model. The study findings indicate that neonatal mortality will continue to decline but still remain very high throughout the out of sample period. Hence, the Liberian policy makers should design appropriate and country specific maternal and child health policies with special attention being given to addressing the major drivers of neonatal deaths such as high teenage pregnancy rates, inadequate infrastructure, lack of skilled medical staff and shortage of medical equipment and supplies.