Tackling High Neonatal Mortality Rates in Liberia Using Empirical Evidence Generated by the Box-Jenkins ARIMA Model
Abstract
Liberia has several challenges such as
inadequate infrastructure, lack of skilled medical staff and shortage of
medical equipment and supplies. Furthermore, there is low contraceptive
prevalence which has resulted in high numbers of teenage pregnancies with 60
percent of neonatal deaths occurring among adolescent women. Tracking future
trends of neonatal mortality rate will guide decisions and allocation of resources
to maternal and child health program activities across the country. Therefore,
this study uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for
Liberia from 1963 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020
to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I
(1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (3,1,3) model. The
study findings indicate that neonatal mortality will continue to decline but
still remain very high throughout the out of sample period. Hence, the Liberian
policy makers should design appropriate and country specific maternal and child
health policies with special attention being given to addressing the major
drivers of neonatal deaths such as high teenage pregnancy rates, inadequate
infrastructure, lack of skilled medical staff and shortage of medical equipment
and supplies.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 336-340
Box, D. E.,
and Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control,
Holden Day, London.
Nyoni, T.
(2018). Box-Jenkins ARIMA Approach to Predicting net FDI Inflows in Zimbabwe, University
Library of Munich, MPRA Paper No. 87737.
UNICEF (2015).
UNICEF, WHO, World Bank. Levels and trends in child mortality: report 2015 -
estimates developed by the United Nations interagency group for child mortality
estimation.
Lori JR,
Munro ML, Moore JE, et al. Lessons learned in Liberia: preliminary examination
of the psychometric properties of trust and teamwork among maternal healthcare
workers. BMC Health Serv Res, 13:134.
Lori JR.,
Munro-Kramer M.L., and Shifman (2017). Patient satisfaction with maternity
waiting homes in Liberia: a case study during the Ebola outbreak. J Midwifery
Womens Health, 62:163–71.
Lori JR.,
and Starke AE (2012). A critical analysis of maternal morbidity and mortality
in Liberia, West Africa. Midwifery, 28:67–72.
Lori JR., Wadsworth AC., and Munro ML (2013).
Promoting access: the use of maternity waiting homes to achieve safe
motherhood. Midwifery, 29:1095–102
Kentoffio
K., Kraemer JD., and Griffiths (2016). Charting health system reconstruction in
post-war Liberia: a comparison of rural vs remote healthcare utilization BMC Health
Services Research, 16:478.
