Usage of ARIMA Model Forecasts to Assess the Possibility of Eradicating All Avoidable Neonatal Deaths in Indonesia by the End of 2030

It is not surprising that neonatal mortality remains a public health problem in Indonesia. The government has implemented several strategies in an attempt to end all preventable neonatal deaths by the end of 2030.These efforts have yielded positive results as shown by the downward spiral of neonatal mortality trends over the past decades. This article uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Indonesia from 1960 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (2,2,4) model. The findings of this study revealed that neonatal mortality will gradually decline from approximately 12 in 2020 to around 9 deaths per 1000 live births by the end of 2030.We therefore, encourage Indonesian policy-makers to design local policies that will reduce neonatal deaths (NNDs)by directing their efforts on promoting institutional deliveries, availing adequate medical supplies especially in primary healthcare facilities and provide medical staff retention packages particularly for those working in remote areas.