Usage of Forecasts Produced By the ARIMA Model to Address Existing Maternal and Neonatal Healthcare Challenges in Panama

This study uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Panama from 1960 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (0,2,3) model. The study findings indicate that neonatal mortality will continue to drop throughout the forecast period to reach levels as low as 6 deaths per 1000 live births by the end of 2030. Hence, we encourage authorities in Panama to address local factors which contribute to neonatal mortality such as accessibility, affordability and quality of maternal and neonatal healthcare services especially in marginalized regions of the country.