Usage of the ARIMA Model to Forecast Future Trends of Neonatal Mortality Rate for Bangladesh
Abstract
The 17 objectives of sustainable development
goals are attached to 169 targets which must be achieved by the end of 2030. UN
member states recognize the importance of incorporating national statistical
offices in every country for tracking SDG progress.
Utilization of various statistical approaches to inform sub-national, national,
regional and international decisions should form the core of the evaluation and
implementation process. This article uses annual time series data on neonatal
mortality rate (NMR) for Bangladesh from 1960 to 2019 to predict future trends
of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series
under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the
ARIMA (2,1,5) model. The ARIMA model predictions suggest that neonatal
mortality will decline to levels below 12 deaths per 1000 live births in the
out-of-sample period. Therefore, authorities should design appropriate neonatal
health policies to address causes of mortality among neonates with priority
being given to primary healthcare.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 202-206
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