Using ARIMA Model Forecasts in the Formulation and Implementation of Appropriate Neonatal Healthcare Strategies in France
Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on
neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for France from 1960 to 2019 to predict future
trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the
series under consideration is an I (2) variable. The optimal model based on AIC
is the ARIMA (0,2,3) model. The ARIMA model predictions indicate that neonatal
mortality will slightly increase from 2.8 to around 3.5 deaths per 1000 live
births by the end of 2030. Hence, this study encourages policy makers in France
to identify and address local neonatal health challenges in order to keep
neonatal mortality under control.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 271-275
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