Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
Neonatal mortality remains a huge heath problem in South
Africa with leading causes being prematurity, intrapartum hypoxia and neonatal
sepsis. The government has made significant progress towards achieving set SDG3
target 3.2 by the end of 2030. However, there is need to reduce absolute
numbers of neonatal deaths. Using time series approaches will assist in
designing neonatal health policies, decision making and allocation of resources
to the maternal and child health program. This research uses annual time series
data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for South Africa from 1975 to 2019 to
predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have
shown that the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal
model based on AIC is the ARIMA (1,1,2) model. The model projections indicate
that neonatal mortality will hover around 11 deaths per 1000 live births
throughout the forecast period. Therefore, health authorities should craft
neonatal policies that will address challenges noted during antenatal, delivery
and postnatal periods. There is need to continuously train medical staff on
basic and emergency obstetric care & neonatal resuscitation and avail
adequate resources at all levels of care especially in primary care health
facilities across the country.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 445-451