International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Using Holt’s Linear Method to Calculate Anticipated Future Values of Annual Adolescent Fertility Rate to Inform Adolescent Health Initiatives in Zimbabwe

Abstract

Teenage conception remains a huge public health problem in Sub-Saharan Africa of which Zimbabwe is no exception. Child marriages, poverty, lack of education, peer pressure, poor parenting and social media influence are among the top drivers of adolescent pregnancy. This empirical research uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Zimbabwe from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility over the period 2021 to 2030. Holt’s linear method (HLM) was employed with optimal values of smoothing constants α and β being0.9 and0.8 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that adolescent fertility will decline from approximately 75 births per 1000 women aged 15-19 years in 2021 down to around 50 births per 1000 women aged 15-19 years by the end of 2030. Therefore, there is need for authorities in Zimbabwe to continuously support girl child education, enforce laws that protect women’s rights, address factors that significantly contribute to high teenage pregnancies, ensure availability of adolescent friendly facilities, increase financial support to youth empowerment programs and scale up campaigns against gender-based violence and early child marriages among communities. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 534-541

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.708077

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