Using Scientific Evidence Generated By the ARIMA Model to Urgently Respond to Numerous Factors Which Significantly Contribute to Neonatal Mortality in Peru
Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on
neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Peru from 1960 to 2019 to predict future trends
of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series
under consideration is an I (2) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the
ARIMA (2,2,2) model. The study findings indicate that neonatal mortality will
continue to fall to levels below 5 deaths per 1000 live births by the end of
2030. We encourage the Peruvian government to address local factors that
influence neonatal mortality such as quality, accessibility and affordability
of neonatal healthcare services in poverty stricken regions of the country.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
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