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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Using the ARIMA Model as a Surveillance Tool for the Early Detection of Future Trends of Neonatal Mortality in Burundi

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 7 No 8 (2023): Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 | Pages: 235-239

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 25-09-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.708032

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Abstract
Tracking future trends of neonatal mortality will help in the assessment of progress towards achieving set SDG-3 target 3.2 by the end of 2030. This will inform policy-making, decisions and allocation of resources to maternal and child health programs. This research uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Burundi from 1964 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (3,1,5) model. The ARIMA model predictions indicate that neonatal mortality will gradually decline from around 20.6 in 2020 to about 16.2 deaths per 1000 live births by the end of 2030. Therefore, authorities in Burundi are encouraged to draft and implement neonatal policies that will effectively tackle the problem of mortality among newborns. This must include regular refresher courses on essential obstetric and newborn care at all levels of healthcare and continuous health education among communities to address contributing factors.
Keywords

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Citation of this Article

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Using the ARIMA Model as a Surveillance Tool for the Early Detection of Future Trends of Neonatal Mortality in Burundi” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, pp 235-239, August 2023. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.708032

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
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