Using the ARIMA Model as a Surveillance Tool for the Early Detection of Future Trends of Neonatal Mortality in Burundi
Abstract
Tracking future trends of neonatal mortality
will help in the assessment of progress towards achieving set SDG-3 target 3.2
by the end of 2030. This will inform policy-making, decisions and allocation of
resources to maternal and child health programs. This research uses annual time
series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Burundi from 1964 to 2019 to
predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have
shown that the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal
model based on AIC is the ARIMA (3,1,5) model. The ARIMA model predictions
indicate that neonatal mortality will gradually decline from around 20.6 in
2020 to about 16.2 deaths per 1000 live births by the end of 2030. Therefore,
authorities in Burundi are encouraged to draft and implement neonatal policies
that will effectively tackle the problem of mortality among newborns. This must
include regular refresher courses on essential obstetric and newborn care at
all levels of healthcare and continuous health education among communities to
address contributing factors.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 235-239
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