Utilization of ARIMA Model Forecasts to Design and Implement Appropriate Neonatal Healthcare Interventions in the Republic of Zambia

Since the beginning of the era of sustainable development goals the Zambian government has been making frantic efforts to control maternal and under five mortality. Despite a noticeable decline of under-five mortality, neonatal mortality remains a huge public health problem especially in the rural areas. Forecasting future trends of neonatal mortality will inform current neonatal healthcare solutions and allocation of resources to the maternal and child health program in the country to improve neonatal survival. Hence, this study uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Zambia from 1969 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (2,1,2) model. The ARIMA model predictions indicate that neonatal mortality will slightly drop and remain high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, it is important for the Zambian government to channel adequate resources to maternal and child health programs in the country with special emphasis being given to improving health infrastructure particularly in the rural areas, ensuring availability of adequate and trained medical staff, and medical supplies at all levels of care. The referral system should be strengthened so that medical cases which require higher levels of care are referred appropriately and timeously.