Utilization of ARIMA Model Forecasts to Design and Implement Appropriate Neonatal Healthcare Interventions in the Republic of Zambia
Abstract
Since the beginning of the era of sustainable
development goals the Zambian government has been making frantic efforts to
control maternal and under five mortality. Despite a noticeable decline of
under-five mortality, neonatal mortality remains a huge public health problem
especially in the rural areas. Forecasting future trends of neonatal mortality
will inform current neonatal healthcare solutions and allocation of resources
to the maternal and child health program in the country to improve neonatal
survival. Hence, this study uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality
rate (NMR) for Zambia from 1969 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over
the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under
consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA
(2,1,2) model. The ARIMA model predictions indicate that neonatal mortality
will slightly drop and remain high throughout the out of sample period.
Therefore, it is important for the Zambian government to channel adequate
resources to maternal and child health programs in the country with special
emphasis being given to improving health infrastructure particularly in the
rural areas, ensuring availability of adequate and trained medical staff, and
medical supplies at all levels of care. The referral system should be
strengthened so that medical cases which require higher levels of care are
referred appropriately and timeously.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 527-533
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