Utilizing ARIMA Model Forecasts to Inform Allocation of Resources to the Maternal and Neonatal Health Program in Guatemala
Abstract
Neonatal mortality continues to be an important
public health issue in Guatemala especially in the rural areas where deliveries
are sometimes conducted by lay midwives who lack skills of conducting safe
deliveries. Failure to identify high risk pregnancies and late referrals
significantly contributes to mortality among newborn babies. This study uses
annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Guatemala from
1964 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit
root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (2) variable.
The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (4,2,2) model. The findings of this
study indicate that neonatal mortality will gradually decline from
approximately 12 in 2020 to around 9 deaths per 1000 live births by the end of
2030. Hence, authorities are encouraged to promote institutional deliveries
particularly in the rural areas to keep neonatal mortality under control.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 281-285
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