Utilizing ARIMA Model Forecasts to Inform Maternal and Neonatal Health Policies in Namibia
Abstract
Namibia is still struggling to achieve
substantial reduction of neonatal mortality with recent evidence suggesting
that the nation will miss its target at the end of 2030. Neonatal deaths are
mainly due to birth asphyxia, prematurity, congenital anomalies, neonatal
sepsis, respiratory distress syndrome and health system related issues. The
government has made key achievements in the reduction of neonatal mortality
rates, however existing policies and interventions have not managed to end all
preventable neonatal deaths. This study uses annual time series data on
neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Namibia from 1969 to 2019 to predict future
trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the
series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC
is the ARIMA (2,1,1) model. The findings of the study indicate that neonatal
mortality is expected to gradually decline from around 19 in 2020 to 15 deaths
per 1000 live births by the end of 2030. Hence, the government of Namibia is
encouraged to implement appropriate neonatal policies to address high neonatal
mortality in the country. Control measures should include regular refresher
courses on basic & emergency obstetric and newborn care at all levels of
healthcare and initiatives to retain medical staff especially in the rural
areas.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 374-381
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