Utilizing ARIMA Model Forecasts to Inform Maternal and Neonatal Health Policies in Namibia

Namibia is still struggling to achieve substantial reduction of neonatal mortality with recent evidence suggesting that the nation will miss its target at the end of 2030. Neonatal deaths are mainly due to birth asphyxia, prematurity, congenital anomalies, neonatal sepsis, respiratory distress syndrome and health system related issues. The government has made key achievements in the reduction of neonatal mortality rates, however existing policies and interventions have not managed to end all preventable neonatal deaths. This study uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Namibia from 1969 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (2,1,1) model. The findings of the study indicate that neonatal mortality is expected to gradually decline from around 19 in 2020 to 15 deaths per 1000 live births by the end of 2030. Hence, the government of Namibia is encouraged to implement appropriate neonatal policies to address high neonatal mortality in the country. Control measures should include regular refresher courses on basic & emergency obstetric and newborn care at all levels of healthcare and initiatives to retain medical staff especially in the rural areas.