Utilizing ARIMA Model Forecasts to Trigger Identification and Implementation of Evidence Based Neonatal Healthcare Initiatives in Rwanda
Abstract
The 3rd sustainable development goal
(SDG-3) is mandated to address all issues regarding the health of different
populations across the globe. It focuses on ensuring good health for all at
every stage of life. Target 3.2 aims to reduce under five mortality to levels
as low as 25 deaths per 1000 live births and neonatal mortality to at least 12
deaths per 1000 live births by the end of 2030. The decline of neonatal
mortality has not been satisfactory during the previous two decades in many
African countries as a result of poor quality of healthcare services during the
antenatal, delivery and postnatal periods. This article employs annual time
series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Rwanda from 1960 to 2019 to
predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have
shown that the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal
model based on AIC is the ARIMA (4,1,1) model. The study findings indicate that
neonatal mortality is expected to gradually fall down to levels below 12
neonatal deaths per 1000 live births by the end of 2030. Therefore, Rwandan
authorities should continue availing medical staff, sufficient medical supplies
and improving health infrastructure in the rural areas amongst other measures.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 430-437
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