Utilizing Empirical Evidence Obtained from the ARIMA Model to Track SDG-3 Progress and Review Neonatal Healthcare Policies in Barbados

The 3rd sustainable development goal (SDG-3) focuses on promotion of good health for all at every stage of life. Target 3.2 aims to reduce neonatal mortality to at least 12 deaths per 1000 live births by the end of 2030. Tracking progress towards the achievement of this target is key to inform decisions, planning and allocation of resources to the maternal and child health (MNCH) program. This paper uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Barbados from 1968 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (3,2,2) model. The ARIMA model projections have shownthat neonatal mortality will remain below 12 deaths per 1000 live births throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, authorities should address causes of deaths among neonates to keep neonatal deaths under control.