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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Utilizing Forecasted Values of Annual Neonatal Mortality Rate Calculated By the ARIMA Model to Inform Neonatal Health Policies and Interventions in Portugal

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 7 No 8 (2023): Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 | Pages: 422-429

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 25-09-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.708062

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Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Portugal from 1960 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (3,2,5) model. The study findings showed that neonatal mortality is expected to slightly increase but will remain below 5 deaths per 1000 live births throughout the forecast period. We, therefore encourage the Portuguese government to identify and address current significant predictors of neonatal mortality across the country.
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Citation of this Article

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Utilizing Forecasted Values of Annual Neonatal Mortality Rate Calculated By the ARIMA Model to Inform Neonatal Health Policies and Interventions in Portugal” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, pp 422-429, August 2023. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.708062  

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