Utilizing Predictions Generated by the ARIMA Model to Address High Neonatal Mortality Rates in Lesotho

Lesotho is known for reporting the highest neonatal mortality rates in Sub-Saharan Africa as a result of challenges such as poverty, inadequate medical staff and poor quality healthcare services. Government initiatives have failed to sufficiently reduce neonatal mortality during the past decades. Hence new strategies must address human resource shortages among other measures. This study employs annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Lesotho from 1960 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (3,1,0) model. The findings of this piece of work showed that neonatal mortality will gradually decline from approximately 42 in 2020 to around 32 deaths per 1000 live births by the end of 2030.Therefore, it is necessary for the authorities in Lesotho to direct their efforts towards promotion of institutional deliveries, ensuring availability of adequately trained medical staff and sufficient medical supplies.