Utilizing Predictions Generated by the ARIMA Model to Address High Neonatal Mortality Rates in Lesotho
Abstract
Lesotho is known for reporting the highest
neonatal mortality rates in Sub-Saharan Africa as a result of challenges such
as poverty, inadequate medical staff and poor quality healthcare services.
Government initiatives have failed to sufficiently reduce neonatal mortality
during the past decades. Hence new strategies must address human resource
shortages among other measures. This study employs annual time series data on
neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Lesotho from 1960 to 2019 to predict future
trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the
series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC
is the ARIMA (3,1,0) model. The findings of this piece of work showed that
neonatal mortality will gradually decline from approximately 42 in 2020 to
around 32 deaths per 1000 live births by the end of 2030.Therefore, it is
necessary for the authorities in Lesotho to direct their efforts towards
promotion of institutional deliveries, ensuring availability of adequately
trained medical staff and sufficient medical supplies.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 329-335
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