Utilizing the ARIMA Model to Determine Future Trends of Neonatal Mortality Rate to Inform Neonatal Healthcare Strategies in Cameroon

Review of SDG progress should be part of national plans and budgets. Time series forecasting techniques detect abnormal future trends of health events, hence their use will guide planning, decisions and allocation of resources to maternal and child health programs. This research uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Cameroon from 1960 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (2,2,2) model. The ARIMA model predictions indicate that NMR will hover around 25 deaths per 1000 live births throughout the forecast period. Hence, policymakers are encouraged to focus on capacitating primary healthcare and regular training of healthcare workers on essential newborn care and basic& emergency obstetric care.