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Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Effect of Crude Oil Price Fluctuations on the Growth Rate of Nigerian Economy (1997 - 2022)

Abstract

The study determines the effect of crude oil price fluctuations on the growth rate of Nigeria economy. The specific objectives of the study were; to find out the extent to which domestic crude oil price fluctuations affect growth rate of Nigeria economy, to determine whether international crude oil price fluctuations affects growth rate of Nigeria economy and to assess the effect of oil price exchange rate fluctuations on the growth rate of Nigeria economy. The study employed ex-post facto research design to investigate and analyze the relationship between dependent and independent variables and the reason for employing these designs (ex-post facto) in the study was because the data already existed. The study employed the annual time data from 1997 to 2022 for the dependent and independent variables: using descriptive statistics and normality test, regression analysis, unit root test, VAR lag order selection criteria, long run ARDL cointegration analysis, short run ARDL estimates, Wald test of long run estimates, ARDL long run form and bounds test, test for reliability and stability of the estimates, Heteroskedasticity test: Breush-Pagan-Godfrey, Jarque-Bera statistic test, short run dynamic analysis. The findings of the study revealed that crude oil price fluctuations has no significant relationship with growth rate of Nigerian economy, this result could reflect the unbalanced effect of crude oil exports and refined oil imports. The study recommended amongst others, there is need for the government to diversify the economy to other sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, tourism and other service oriented sectors to open up a wider spectrum for inflow of income to the economy and break the over independence of the economy on oil sector. Government should try as much as possible to account for the total quantity of refined oil imported into the country on a daily basis and the total costs of such should be made known for the public utilization.

Country : Nigeria

1 Oshiomu Augustine Odido Ph.D.2 Sunday Asuquo Effiong Ph.D.3 Eneje Bernard Eneje

  1. Department of Educational Foundation and Administration, Cross River State College of Education, Akamkpa-Nigeria
  2. Department of Accounting, University of Calabar, Calabar-Nigeria
  3. Internal Audit Department, Cross River State College of Education, Akamkpa-Nigeria

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 9, September 2023 pp. 11-29

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.709002

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