DiREcT AI: Development and Validation of a Machine Learning Tool for Diabetes Complications Risk Education in South Indian Patients

Abstract

Background and Aims: Diabetes mellitus, a group of metabolic diseases requiring multifactorial risk reduction and continuous medical care, poses significant challenges for complications prevention beyond glycemic control. This study addresses the contemporary emphasis on Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) to develop algorithms capable of learning patterns and decision rules from data. Despite the existence of risk scores for complications, their limitations in accurately estimating both types of diabetes complications underscore the need for predictive models based on local data applicable in bedside and clinic settings.

Methods: In the Endocrinology OPD setting of a tertiary care hospital, we have utilized four Neural Network-based algorithms (Random Forest, Decision Tree, K Neighbour [KNN], and Artificial Neural Networks [ANN]) to predict complications in type 2 diabetes patients.

Results: A Deep Neural Network model integrating these algorithms achieved optimal results, particularly with the ANN GRU model exhibiting a sensitivity of 89%, specificity of 97%, F1 score of 0.93, and AUC ROC of 0.98.

Conclusion: This study outlines the successful development and validation of a machine learning-based model for predicting adverse outcomes associated with diverse diabetes complications, underscoring the potential of machine learning in individual risk predictions and offering a practical application for patient education, facilitating behavior change for risk reduction and overall wellness.

Country : India

1 Debdeep Saha2 James Devasia3 Jayaprakash Sahoo4 Subitha Lakshminarayanan

  1. Intern, Jawaharlal Institute of Postgraduate Medical Education and Research, Pondicherry, India
  2. Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, Jawaharlal Institute of Postgraduate Medical Education and Research, Pondicherry, India
  3. Department of Endocrinology, Jawaharlal Institute of Postgraduate Medical Education and Research, Pondicherry, India
  4. Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, Jawaharlal Institute of Postgraduate Medical Education and Research, Pondicherry, India

IRJIET, Volume 9, Issue 7, July 2025 pp. 71-80

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2025.907008

References

  1. American Diabetes Association. Standards of Medical Care in Diabetes—2020. Diabetes Care 2020;43(Suppl. 1):S1–S212
  2. Chawla A, Chawla R, Jaggi S. Microvasular and macrovascular complications in diabetes mellitus: Distinct or continuum? Indian J Endocrinol Metab. 2016 JulAug;20(4):546-51.
  3. International Diabetes Federation. IDF Diabetes Atlas, 10th edn. Brussels, Belgium: 2021. Available at: https://www.diabetesatlas.org
  4. India State-Level Disease Burden Initiative Diabetes Collaborators. The increasing burden of diabetes and variations among the states of India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990– 2016. Lancet Glob Health 2018; 6: e1352–62.
  5. Papatheodorou K, Banach M, Edmonds M, Papanas N, Papazoglou D. Complications of diabetes. Journal of diabetes research. 2015 Jul 12;2015.
  6. Basu S, Sussman JB, Berkowitz SA, Hayward RA, Bertoni AG, Correa A et al. Validation of Risk Equations for Complications of Type 2 Diabetes (RECODe) Using Individual Participant Data From Diverse Longitudinal Cohorts in the U.S. Diabetes Care 2018;41:586– 595
  7. Haug CJ, Drazen JM. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Clinical Medicine, 2023. N Engl J Med. 2023;388(13):1201-1208.
  8. Schiborn, C., Schulze, M.B. Precision prognostics for the development of complications in diabetes. Diabetologia 65, 1867–1882 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00125-022-05731-4
  9. Tan KR, Seng JJB, Kwan YH, Chen YJ, Zainudin SB, Loh DHF, Liu N, Low LL. Evaluation of Machine Learning Methods Developed for Prediction of Diabetes Complications: A Systematic Review. J Diabetes Sci Technol. 2023 Mar;17(2):474-489. doi: 10.1177/19322968211056917. Epub 2021 Nov 3. PMID: 34727783; PMCID: PMC10012374.
  10. Uddin, S., Khan, A., Hossain, M. et al. Comparing different supervised machine learning algorithms for disease prediction. BMC Med Inform DecisMak 19, 281 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12911-019-1004-8
  11. Anjali, C., Olickal, J.J., Arikrishnan, K., Zunatha Banu, A., Sahoo, J., Kar, S.S., & Lakshminarayanan, S. (2021). Development and testing of Diabetes Complications Risk Educational Tool (DiREcT) for improving risk perception among patients with diabetes mellitus: a mixed method study. International Journal of Diabetes in Developing Countries, 41, 504 - 510.
  12. Dagliati A, Marini S, Sacchi L, Cogni G, Teliti M, Tibollo V, De Cata P, Chiovato L, Bellazzi R. Machine Learning Methods to Predict Diabetes Complications. J Diabetes Sci Technol. 2018 Mar;12(2):295-302.
  13. Chaki J, Ganesh ST, Cidham SK, Theertan SA. Machine learning and artificial intelligence based Diabetes Mellitus detection and self-management: A systematic review. Journal of King Saud University-Computer and Information Sciences. 2022 Jun 1;34(6):3204-25.
  14. Fiarni C, Sipayung E M and Maemunah S 2019 Analysis and Prediction of Diabetes Complication Disease Using Data Mining Algorithms Procedia Computer ence 161 449-457
  15. Ljubic B, Hai AA, Stanojevic M, Diaz W, Polimac D, Pavlovski M, Obradovic Z. Predicting complications of diabetes mellitus using advanced machine learning algorithms. J Am Med Inform Assoc. 2020 Jul 1;27(9):1343-1351. doi: 10.1093/jamia/ocaa120. PMID: 32869093; PMCID: PMC7647294.   
  16. Abaker AA, Saeed FA. A comparative analysis of machine learning algorithms to build a predictive model for detecting diabetes complications. Informatica. 2021 Mar 15;45(1).
  17. Ravaut, M., Sadeghi, H., Leung, K.K. et al. Predicting adverse outcomes due to diabetes complications with machine learning using administrative health data. Npj Digit. Med. 4, 24 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41746-021-00394-8.
  18. Kavakiotis I, Tsave O, Salifoglou A, Maglaveras N, Vlahavas I, Chouvarda I. Machine learning and data mining methods in diabetes research. Computational and structural biotechnology journal. 2017 Jan 1;15:104-16.
  19. Chung WK, Erion K, Florez JC et al (2020) Precision medicine in diabetes: a Consensus Report from the American Diabetes Association (ADA) and the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD). Diabetologia 63(9):1671–1693. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00125-020-05181-w
  20. Basu K, Sinha R, Ong A, Basu T. Artificial Intelligence: How is It Changing Medical Sciences and Its Future? Indian J Dermatol. 2020 Sep-Oct;65(5):365-370. doi: 10.4103/ijd.IJD_421_20. PMID: 33165420; PMCID: PMC7640807.
  21. Ellahham S. Artificial intelligence: the future for diabetes care. Am J Med 2020 Aug;133(8):895-900.