International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Demonstrating the Suitability of Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique in Forecasting Adolescent Fertility for the State of Israel

Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 7 No 2 (2023): Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 | Pages: 129-134

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 25-03-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702020

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Abstract

This research article uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for the State of Israel from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.4 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Israel to address all the factors that contribute significantly to adolescent fertility including socio-cultural, economic and demographic factors.

Keywords

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Citation of this Article

Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Demonstrating the Suitability of Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique in Forecasting Adolescent Fertility for the State of Israel” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, pp 129-134, February 2023. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.702020

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
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